A SARIMA Method for Analyzing How Agricultural Factors Affect Nigeria's GDP

Abstract

This study uses quarterly data from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2022 to assess the impact of agricultural factors to Nigeria's overall economic growth and development. The National Bureau of Statistics Nigeria provided the information on cattle, forestry, agriculture, and fisheries. The decomposition model (additive and multiplication) was fitted using time series analysis and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). The findings indicated that while the second and third quarters saw higher GDPs than the quarterly average, the first and fourth quarters saw lower GDPs from livestock, fisheries, forestry, and crop production (the total monetary value of goods produced in years). SARIMA (1,0,1)x(1,0,1)4, SARIMA (2,0,1)x(2,0,1)4, and SARIMA (2,0,1)x(2,1,1)4 were all found to be adequate, and any of them may be utilized for additional forecasting. The SARIMA model was employed to test for adequacy. Therefore, it is advised that investments in forestry, crop production, livestock, and fisheries be made during the second and third quarters of the year in order to reap significant benefits.